On January 22nd, although the Shanghai Composite Index in the A-share market closed at 2315.14 points, down 13.08 points from the previous trading day, many stocks experienced varying degrees of decline during the session. However, the recently skyrocketing Beidou Star Connect still rose 0.35 yuan against the market, ultimately closing at 35.75 yuan. Beidou Xingtong is currently the most dazzling super bull stock in the securities market, with its stock price doubling in just 12 trading days, experiencing 6 limit up periods and a maximum increase of 140%.
The rise in the stock price of Beidou Xingtong was due to December 27, 2012. On that day, the Beidou Satellite Navigation System (hereinafter referred to as the "Beidou System") independently developed by China officially provided services in the Asia Pacific region, with a positioning accuracy of 10 meters within the coverage area. According to the plan, an additional 450 billion yuan will be allocated for global planning in the next decade, and by 2020, the Beidou system will achieve global coverage capability.
According to information provided by the China Satellite Navigation System Management Office, the scale of China's satellite navigation industry exceeded 120 billion yuan in 2012.
The above news is a significant positive for companies in the Beidou related industry. So, not only Beidou Navigation Satellite System, but also all stocks belonging to the Beidou Navigation concept have risen across the board.
On December 31st, four days later, the Ministry of Transport issued the document Jiaoyunfa [2012] No. 798, requiring nine provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities including Jiangsu, Hebei, and Anhui to ensure that more than 80% of the installation tasks for Beidou satellite navigation system vehicle terminals in their respective provinces are completed by the end of March this year, and encouraging provinces with conditions to exceed the installation tasks.
It is worth mentioning that in this document, the Ministry of Transport mentions that this is a political task and requires all provinces, regions, and cities to accelerate its implementation and complete it on time. On January 14th, the Ministry of Transport held a teleconference, during which Vice Minister of Transport Feng Zhenglin emphasized the importance of installing Beidou systems in 9 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities. He also stressed that "this is a major political task" and stated that "vehicles that do not install or install Beidou compatible vehicle terminals in accordance with regulations will not be issued or verified with road transport certificates".
As soon as the news came out, the market was in an uproar. The public questions whether this is the so-called forced buying and selling? Macroeconomist Hu Shizhi has a clear attitude in an interview with Time Weekly. He believes that the Ministry of Transportation's approach is to force buying and selling. "When you force sell something, you are harming the interests of consumers and actually telling everyone that the thing is not worth buying
In the eyes of some industry insiders, the embarrassment that Beidou is currently facing is self-evident. The chip price is higher than GPS, the industry chain has not yet formed a scale, and there are too few authorized terminal companies. Therefore, from the almost mandatory installation of Beidou system by the Ministry of Transport, some clues may be seen - if no mandatory measures are taken for installation, how can Beidou enter this market that has already been occupied by GPS with more than 95% of the market share?
Hu Shizhi believes that the actions of the Ministry of Transport are ruining the future of Beidou. "Only when we are not confident that we can sell things at this price, do we need to force them to sell, use administrative trump cards, and rely on the government's compulsory orders to occupy the market. This is a manifestation of inferiority, and doing so is killing ourselves
However, not all experts agree with Hu Shizhi's viewpoint, and Xue Shengwen, a senior researcher at China Investment Corporation, is one of them. Xue said that the Beidou system is in its infancy and urgently needs strong policy support. Moreover, the domestic market has long been monopolized by GPS systems. Without policy intervention, the market development of the Beidou system will face significant obstacles.
Beidou Weaving Network
The Beidou Satellite Navigation System is a global satellite navigation system independently developed and operated by China. Along with the US GPS, Russia's GLONASS system, and the EU's Galileo positioning system, it has been recognized by the United Nations as one of the four core suppliers of satellite navigation systems worldwide.
China's exploration of satellite navigation and positioning system technology and solutions began in the 1980s. In 1983, aerospace expert Academician Chen Yunfang first proposed the idea of using two geostationary orbit communication satellites in China to achieve rapid regional navigation and positioning. In 1989, China conducted a dual satellite positioning demonstration and verification experiment using communication satellites, proving the correctness and feasibility of the technical system of the Beidou satellite navigation test system. In 1994, the construction of the Beidou satellite navigation experimental system was launched. In October 2000, the first satellite of the experimental system was launched into orbit. In May 2003, the third Beidou satellite was successfully launched, marking China as the third country in the world after the United States and Russia to have an independent satellite navigation system.
In 2004, the Beidou Satellite Navigation System project was launched, which is a massive satellite network consisting of 5 geostationary orbit satellites and 30 non geostationary orbit satellites. In April 2007, the first Beidou satellite navigation system satellite was successfully launched. From then on, Beidou satellites began high-density launches, especially since 2010, maintaining a launch frequency of about 4 satellites per year.
Since December 27, 2011, Beidou has been providing continuous navigation positioning and timing services to China and surrounding areas. At this time, there are already 10 in orbit satellites of the Beidou Satellite Navigation System.
In 2012, the networking process of the Beidou satellite navigation system accelerated. After the launch of the 11th satellite in February, the 12th to 15th satellites were sent into space in April and September using a one rocket, two satellite system.
On December 27, 2012, the Beidou Satellite Navigation System announced that since providing trial operation services on December 27, 2011, the Beidou system has completed the launch of 4 arrows and 6 satellites, expanding the system coverage, enhancing constellation stability, and improving system service accuracy. At present, the in orbit satellites and ground systems are operating stably, and through various user terminal tests and evaluations, the system service performance meets the design specifications. Since then, the Beidou system has officially provided continuous passive positioning, navigation, timing and other services to most parts of the Asia Pacific region.
Some analysts believe that this means that Beidou has officially entered the civilian navigation market, competing with GPS, which currently dominates the market. In fact, as early as 2003, the Beidou system quietly entered the domestic civilian navigation market, but at that time, its applications were mostly focused on professional navigation such as fishing boats at sea.
On December 27, 2012, when the official provision of regional navigation services was announced, the official version of the Beidou System Space Signal Interface Control Document (ICD) was also officially released.
This document standardizes the signal interface relationship between the Beidou system and user receivers, and is a necessary technical document for developing and manufacturing receivers and chips. With this code, foreign companies will be able to enter the Beidou satellite navigation industry and develop Beidou application terminals based on it.
The slow commercialization process cannot be denied, and the commercialization process of the Beidou system is very slow.
In 2005, Qi Faren, an academician of the CAE Member, once said that the Beidou system had the capacity of millions of users, but only thousands of users. The country has invested billions of yuan, and there are still many depreciation expenses every year, but they are not fully utilized, resulting in resource waste. But by 2010, this situation had not improved much, and the number of users was still only tens of thousands.
As of the end of 2011, the social ownership of China's Beidou first generation terminals exceeded 100000 sets, with 50-60 companies participating in the research and development or sales of Beidou terminals, and an annual output value of 300-400 million yuan. In comparison, the total sales volume of GPS navigation terminals exceeded 45 million units in 2011, with an output value of nearly 70 billion yuan and more than 6800 participating enterprises. Everyone wants to buy GPS, who do you think can sell it to with Beidou? "Said Zhong Wei, the project leader of a domestic navigation company. User needs are the key considerations for manufacturers. According to public information, there are currently only over 130000 users of "Beidou" and over 100 million GPS users, with a huge gap between the two.
In the interview, a reporter from Time Weekly learned that there are not many manufacturers in the market currently producing Beidou navigation, and waiting is the attitude of most manufacturers. Given the uncertain and immature prospects of the industry supporting the Beidou system, no manufacturer would rashly engage in research and production. Follow up requires a large amount of manpower, material resources, and technical reserves, which are basically not possessed by most enterprises, "said Zhong Wei.
From the supply side, there are only over 40 user machine research and production enterprises and 7 specialized service companies in Beidou, most of which are small and medium-sized private enterprises. Many of these dozens of enterprises will not survive for two or three years, and most will suffer losses, "said Zhang Chao, the head of a professional sorting service company in China. This is mainly due to the fact that the user market has not yet been truly launched, supporting industrial policies are not in place, and market development is not standardized.
In fact, not only user demand, but also price is a key consideration for manufacturers. At present, the price of Beidou navigation modules sold in the market is about 300 yuan, while GPS modules cost as little as tens of yuan and as much as hundreds of yuan. The several fold price difference is also an important reason why manufacturers and consumers hesitate.
The price of Beidou is so high, making finished products even more expensive. Who wants it? "An analyst who requested anonymity said. Speaking of chips, GPS is even cheaper." Now GPS chips cost less than 10 yuan, how can Beidou compare
Zhong Wei estimated that the price of the Beidou car navigation system on the market should be around 1000 yuan. Beidou chips and navigation terminals that can compete with foreign products in terms of performance have already emerged, but meeting performance standards does not mean that development and promotion are "green lights". The high cost of chips remains an urgent problem that Beidou needs to solve, and it is also one of the biggest bottlenecks restricting the development of Beidou navigation applications.
So, how can we solve the problem of high prices for Beidou chips? There is only one way, which is through wider applications, "said Wu Hailing, a senior engineer at the China Satellite Navigation System Management Office. GPS terminals cost tens of thousands of dollars when they were first launched in the 1990s, but after 20 years of development, it is now possible to buy a GPS application terminal on the market for a few hundred yuan. By continuously improving product maturity through a large number of applications, including innovative application and business models, value-added services are becoming increasingly affordable, resulting in lower prices.
In Wu Hailing's opinion, China has a large population. According to the prospect, Beidou will become cheaper and cheaper in the future. However, Wu Hailing believes that the application promotion of Beidou will not gradually reduce its price over 20 years like GPS, and the initial price of Beidou will not be as expensive as GPS. With various measures introduced by the country, we believe that Beidou's products, including chips, modules, terminals, and related value-added services, will soon achieve a situation of high quality and low price
In the view of Xue Shengwen, a senior researcher at China Investment Consulting, the development goal of the Beidou system is to penetrate the personal terminal market. At present, the downstream chip, terminal and other manufacturing markets of the Beidou system are still in their infancy, and the industrial chain has not yet formed. The high prices of related procurement, transportation, manufacturing and other links are inevitable. The application of the Beidou system in China is being piloted in stages and batches. Many ships have installed Beidou systems that are running well, and their application will gradually expand to personal terminals in the future.
The market outlet of Beidou
The analyst who requested anonymity mentioned earlier believes that the biggest challenge currently facing the Beidou system is how to improve the market, how to effectively coordinate national policies, technology, market demand, and the entire industry chain including chip development, terminal design, and operation backend technical support. This is an urgent problem that Beidou needs to solve. The analyst stated that the most important aspects of developing a navigation system are hardware, software, and market push. The main reason for the current low market share of Beidou is that the total number of satellites supporting the operation of the system is insufficient, and the accuracy and coverage area of the system are not enough to meet the market demand
More importantly, the preparation work for the industrial chain supporting the Beidou system has not been completed, especially the core technology, which has not yet reached the level of commercialization and public disclosure of system functions after entering the market. From the perspective of market demand, it is still in the form of enterprises and institutions closely related to the government and military industry. From the perspective of market share, it is actually another form of monopoly. "Private companies cannot enter the subsequent civilian research and development process of the Beidou system, let alone the corresponding market competition and promotion momentum," the analyst said.
Ran Chengqi, Director of the China Satellite Navigation System Management Office, stated that policies are indeed a very important guarantee for the development of Beidou, and Beidou is referring to the navigation policies of other countries in the world. At present, we are also considering encouraging policies based on the participation of enterprises in Beidou, and enjoying preferential policies in terms of funding, taxation, and other aspects that high-tech industries should have. "We are actively coordinating and communicating with relevant national departments to make Beidou mandatory for use in industries involving national economy, society, and security," said Ran Chengqi. "For example, in industries such as communication, power, and finance, Beidou should be mandatory for use, or encouraged to be prioritized for use. Through these aspects, we can promote the application of Beidou and serve the national economy and society
Developing independent satellite navigation systems is an important strategic deployment for China's economic development and military security. Accelerating the popularization of the system's application will help promote its optimization and upgrading. The market promotion of Beidou should be policy driven, "Xue Shengwen agrees with Ran Chengqi's statement. He believes that infrastructure should be combined with the Beidou system, and the expansion of downstream manufacturing markets should be accelerated. Actively cooperate with mobile phone manufacturers, mobile and other enterprises to develop distinctive promotion strategies.
But the current situation is that Beidou is undergoing large-scale industrialization promotion, which requires more enterprises to participate. Regarding how to attract and encourage more enterprises to participate in the promotion of Beidou Navigation, Ran Chengqi believes that in addition to strengthening publicity, there are two aspects of work to attract enterprises to participate. Firstly, supporting the most advantageous domestic enterprises to actively participate in Beidou research and development, providing corresponding research and development funding support, promoting them to start Beidou research and development, focusing on Beidou research and development, paying attention to Beidou applications, and entering the Beidou application market. On the other hand, we also want to work together with relevant departments to promote the introduction of preferential policies by the country in high-tech industries, and to promote a favorable policy environment for these enterprises
According to Liu Jingnan, an academician of the CAE Member and executive chairman of the Scientific Committee of the China Satellite Navigation Academic Conference, in 2015, the Beidou satellite navigation system will form an industry worth 150 billion to 200 billion yuan. In 2020, its industrial value is expected to reach 400 billion yuan.
It can be seen that as a sunrise industry, satellite navigation has been included in the national strategic emerging industry, and the National Development and Reform Commission is also leading the formulation of medium - and long-term development plans. The promotion and industrialization of the Beidou system application are also gradually unfolding.
Guangdong is the province that first applied the Beidou navigation system on public buses. In 2011, a total of 8316 official vehicles in Guangzhou were equipped with Beidou satellite electronic monitoring systems, reducing driving mileage by more than 20%.
In Shanghai, the demonstration project of Beidou comprehensive application for smart cities is about to be launched, and livelihood application projects such as "intelligent calling" and "intelligent transportation navigation" are about to enter the lives of ordinary people.
At present, Beijing has organized 10 pilot demonstrations of Beidou navigation and location industry projects, covering various fields such as transportation, emergency rescue, and geological disaster monitoring. The city has applied 20000 Beidou terminals with a total investment of about 870 million yuan.
In addition, many industrial parks in cities across the country such as Nanjing, Zhongshan, and Chengdu are actively introducing enterprises related to the Beidou navigation industry chain. Beidou will develop, but there is still a long way to go, "said the analyst." Solving technological and market barriers, truly aligning demand with the market, rather than monopolizing and closing off, truly enriching and activating the industrial chain, maintaining a good fair competition environment, and allowing enterprises in all links to obtain corresponding benefits, so that Beidou can gradually develop and grow.
Qi Faren, an academician of the CAE Member and chief designer of the Shenzhou VII spaceship, issued some suggestions during the National Two Sessions in March 2012, which may be able to respond to the public's doubts about the Beidou's entry into the market.
Qi Faren said that given that the Beidou satellite system is still in the stage of continuous development, especially in the civilian field where good standards and applications have not yet been formed, it has greatly caused waste of resources. "The government needs to use relevant policies and regulations to strengthen the protection and application of domestic satellites. In addition to formulating practical and feasible industrialization policies for the Beidou satellite navigation system, it also needs to determine its important position in the national information construction. Only then can the Beidou satellite navigation system be better developed and improved, so that it can better serve the national economic and defense construction
